*Step 1 - We need to forecast the individual margins per station per fuel grade*

Every hour we look at the margin on every station and every fuel grade and we estimate the future margin based on the current trend.

*Step 2 - We need to forecast the ‘Volume Scalars’*

A ‘volume scalar’ is the percentage of total company volume that comes from a given station/grade.

To forecast the volume scalars we look at the volume behaviour for the previous 3 weeks and take an average across this period adjusted for weekly seasonality, i.e. we don’t compare a Monday volume against a Saturday volume.

*Step 3 - We can then forecast your Company Margin for Midday tomorrow*

We do a weighted sum of the individual forecasted margins calculated in step 1, using the volume scalars as the weights from step 2. Then we add/subtract any price changes that you are aiming to make to then give you your forecasted margin for Midday tomorrow.

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